Assignment 2: Details
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Which stock should I invest in?
(Statistical Inference and Regression Analysis)
You have been asked by your client to recommend which of two available stocks will perform better over time, relative to risk. You will need to compare risk and return relationship of the two stocks over time, and present your findings as both a written report (detailing your calculations and findings), and a short video presentation to your client, elaborating on one aspect of your investigation.
The goal of this assignment is to
- give you practice in performing the different types of quantitative analysis tasks often undertaken by Business graduates
- provide you with feedback on your ability to carry out such tasks
- learn how and when to use different quantitative techniques covered in the last six (6) modules.
This is an individual assignment, worth 30% of the total assessment in this subject. This assignment is based on topics including; Sampling and Estimation, Hypothesis Testing, and Regression Analysis.
- Use the marking rubric as a guide when working on your assignment.
Comparison of stock returns
Variables and Data Sources:
- PS&P = S&P 500 Price Index
This is Standard and Poor index of 500 companies and will be used as market portfolio.
http://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5egspc/history?p=^gspc
- PG = Google Stock Price
A particular stock we are interested in to determine how it behaves in response to market changes.
http://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOGL/
- PY = Yahoo Stock Price
A particular stock we are interested in to determine how it behaves in response to market changes.
http://finance.yahoo.com/quote/YHOO/
- rf =Interest rate on 10 year US-Treasury Note
This variable is given in percentage (with % sign omitted) and will serve as a risk-free interest rate. We will use this variable to compute excess returns on our preferred stock (either Google or Yahoo) and Market excess returns.
http://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ETNX/
Now perform the following tasks.
Task A: Downloading the data
Download the data for S&P 500 index, Google Stock Price, Yahoo Stock Price, and US TN (10 year), using the links provided above and choosing Monthly Historical Data for all variables covering the period related to a group your Student ID belongs to.
Example: Suppose my student ID is 19178800. This ID falls in last group and I would download monthly data covering the period Jun 2009 – Jan 2014.
| Task B: Questions | ||||||||||
| 1. | Create the line charts for each of S&P, Yahoo and Google series using Close prices against time in Excel and comment on your observations (focusing time series features). | |||||||||
| 2. | a. Calculate returns for these three series in Excel using the transformation: rt = 100 ln[Pt/Pt-1]
Hints:
b. Obtain the summary statistics for your sample and briefly discuss the risk and average return relationship in each stock. Which stock (Google or Yahoo) is relatively riskier than the other? c. Perform the Jarque-Berra test of normally distributed returns for each of Yahoo, Google and S&P. |
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| 3. | Now, assume the following information about population distribution of returns on Google and Yahoo stocks.
a. Write down the sampling distribution of sample means for both stocks when a sample of 36 months is taken. Use these sampling distributions to answer the following parts. b. What is the probability of observing average return of at least 4% in both stocks? c. What is the likelihood of loss in a sample of 36 periods for both stocks? |
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| 4. | Before investing in one of the two stocks based on higher risk-return relationship, you further want to determine whether both stocks have same population average return. Perform an appropriate hypothesis test using information in your actual sample of 56 observations and report your findings. Also, which stock will you prefer and why? | |||||||||
| 5. | Create two new columns in Excel for excess return on your preferred stock (yt) and excess market return (xt) by subtracting the 10-year T-Bill rate from both series as follows.
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| 6. | a. Estimate the CAPM using linear regression where the dependent variable is excess return on your preferred stock while the independent variable is excess market return (computed as return on S&P 500 minus the risk fee rate) and report your results. b. Interpret the estimated coefficients in relation to the profitability of the Stock and its riskiness in comparison with the market. c. Interpret the value of R2. d. Interpret 95% confidence interval for the slope coefficient. |
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| 7. | Using the confidence interval approach to hypothesis testing, perform the hypothesis test to determine whether your preferred stock is a neutral stock. (You would not be given any marks if you do not use CI approach to hypothesis testing) | |||||||||
The Capital Asset Pricing Model
Analyse Data & Submit Report
Prepare your written report in two Parts:
Part A: Calculations
- Set out all your calculations for each of the tasks (listed above) using Data Analysis Tool in Excel. Present your results in graphs and charts as appropriate
Part B: Interpretation
- Explain what your results mean, in language that your client can understand. For example, what conclusions can you draw from each of your findings?
- Your written report must be no more than TWELVE (12) pages in total, including all appendices, graphs, tables and written answers. Answer the questions directly. Do not present unnecessary graphs or numerical measures, undertake inappropriate tests or discuss irrelevant matters.
| Description | Total Marks | |
| Task A | Downloaded correct data | 6 |
| Task B | ||
| 1. | Line charts | 9 |
| 2. a | Returns computation | 6 |
| 2. b | Summary statistics | 8 |
| 2. c | Jarque-Berra test of normality | 10 |
| 3. a | Sampling Distribution | 6 |
| 3. b & c | Probability or average returns | 8 |
| 4. 0 | Hypothesis Testing-Two Population Means | 10 |
