Hansson Private Label, Inc.:
Evaluating an Investment in Expansion
Introduction
On a frigid Sunday night in late February 2008, Tucker Hansson pored over a proposal developed
by his firm’s manufacturing team. It called for investing $50 million to expand production capacity at
Hansson Private Label (Hansson or HPL). For Hansson, a private company, this would be a
significant investment. The company had not initiated a project of that magnitude for more than a
decade, and the expansion wasn’t without significant risk. It would be likely to double HPL’s debt
and to greatly increase customer concentration. This was a critical juncture for the firm Tucker
Hansson had carefully built over 15 years. He wondered whether the return on investment would be
large enough to justify the effort and risk. He also wondered about the best means of evaluating the
potential investment.
HPL manufactured personal care products—soap, shampoo, mouthwash, shaving cream,
sunscreen, and the like—all sold under the brand label of one or another of HPL’s retail partners,
which included supermarkets, drug stores, and mass merchants. The firm, whose sales had grown
steadily over the years, generated $681 million in revenue in 2007.
Three weeks earlier, HPL’s largest retail customer had told Hansson that it wanted to significantly
increase HPL’s share of their private label manufacturing. Given that HPL was already operating
near full capacity, it would need to expand to accommodate this important customer without
“cannibalizing” a significant portion of HPL’s existing business. The rub was, the customer would
commit to only a three-year contract—and it expected a go/no-go commitment from Hansson within
30 days.
Although he was worried about risk, Hansson was equally invigorated by the prospects of rapid
growth and significant value creation. He knew of numerous examples of manufacturers, both in
private label and branded businesses, who had risked their future by locking in a strong relationship
with a huge, powerful retailer. For many, the bet had delivered a big payout that lasted for decades.
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Hansson’s employees had completed their fact-gathering and provided a multifaceted analysis of
the proposed project, which he now held in his hands. The time had come to do a final analysis on his
own and make a decision.
Company Background
HPL started in 1992, when Tucker Hansson purchased most of the manufacturing assets of Simon
Health and Beauty Products. Simon had decided to exit the market after struggling for years as a
bottom-tier player in branded personal care products. Hansson was a serial entrepreneur who had
spent the previous nine years buying manufacturing businesses and selling them for a profit after he
improved their efficiency and grew their sales. He bought HPL for $42 million—$25 million of his
own funds and $17 million that he borrowed—which was (and remained) the largest single
investment Hansson had ever made. Hansson was seeking to capitalize on what he saw as the
nascent but powerful trend of private label products’ increasing their share of consumer-products
sales. Although the concentration of his wealth into a single investment was risky, Hansson believed
he was paying significantly less than replacement costs for the assets—and he was confident that
private label growth would continue unabated.
Hansson’s assessment of private label growth prospects proved to be prescient, and his
unrelenting focus on manufacturing efficiency, expense management, and customer service had
turned HPL into a success. HPL now counted most of the major national and regional retailers as
customers. Hansson had expanded conservatively, never adding significant capacity until he had
clear enough visibility of the sales pipeline to ensure that any new facility would commence
operations with at least 60% capacity utilization. He now had four plants, all operating at more than
90% of capacity. He had also maintained debt at a modest level to contain the risk of financial distress
in the event that the company lost a big customer. HPL’s mission had remained the same: to be a
leading provider of high-quality private label personal care products to America’s leading retailers.
(See Exhibit 1, which presents HPL’s historical financial statements.)
The Market for Personal Care Products
The personal care market included hand and body care, personal hygiene, oral hygiene, and skin
care products. U.S. sales of these products totaled $21.6 billion in 2007. The market was stable, and
unit volumes had increased less than 1% in each of the past four years. The dollar sales growth of the
category was driven by price increases, which were also modest, averaging 1.7% annually during the
past four years. The category featured numerous national names with considerable brand loyalty.
Branded offerings ranged from high-end products such as Oral-B in the oral hygiene category to
lower-end names such as Suave in hair care. Private label penetration, measured as a percentage of
subsegment dollar sales, ranged from 3% in hair care to 20% in hand sanitizers. (Exhibits 2 and 3
present data about private label sales and market share.)
Consumers purchased personal care products mainly through retailers in five primary categories:
mass merchants (e.g., Wal-Mart), club stores (e.g., Costco), supermarkets (e.g., Kroger), drug stores
(e.g., CVS), and dollar stores (e.g., Dollar General). As a result of significant consolidation and growth
in retail chains over the past 15 years, manufacturers of consumer products depended heavily on a
relatively small number of retailers that had a large national presence. To survive in the personal care
category, manufacturers had to persuade large chains to carry their products, provide adequate and
highly visible shelf space, and cooperate with product promotions. Many consumer-goods companies
found it increasingly difficult to do so, as roughly 80,000 new products were launched each year,
creating intense competition for shelf space.Hansson Private Label, Inc.: Evaluating an Investment in Expansion | 4021
HARVARD BUSINESS SCHOOL | BRIEFCASES 3
The Private Label Industry
With private label brands, retailers rather than manufacturers controlled the production,
packaging, and promotion of the goods. Although some large retailers had integrated vertically and
owned the manufacturing facilities for their private label products, most retailers purchased their
goods from third-party manufacturers. Some manufacturers produced private label products in
addition to their branded goods (e.g., Kimberly-Clark), whereas others (e.g., Procter & Gamble) did
not produce any private label products.
Historically, retailers had carried private label goods to offer consumers lower-priced alternatives
to national branded goods. Over time, quality improvements in private label goods and their
packaging led to increased acceptance by consumers. Acceptance was so widespread that 99.9% of
U.S. consumers purchased at least one private label product in 2007, according to AC Nielsen. This
greater acceptance led private label sales across all product categories to exceed $70 billion in 2007.
Retailers had driven, and still drove, these increases in consumer acceptance. They could increase
their profits by capturing a greater share of the value chain than they did with branded goods, on
which manufacturer profits per unit could be twice those of the retailer, especially if the brand was
well known (e.g., Crest toothpaste). With private label goods, retailers’ cost of goods was as much as
50% lower than with branded products. Given the reduced cost, retailers could double their profit per
unit sold despite lower selling prices. Gaining further consumer acceptance of private label goods
and prices remained a huge opportunity for retailers, as these goods constituted less than 5% of sales
in many product categories. In the $21.6 billion personal care category, private label products
accounted for $4 billion of sales at retail (less than 19%), which translated to $2.4 billion in wholesale
sales from the manufacturers. Hansson estimated that HPL had a little more than a 28% share of that
total (see Exhibit 4, which shows HPL’s sales into its retail channels).
Investment Proposal
The investment proposal in Hansson’s hands included the following elements:
Cost Components Amount Est. Life Depr.
Facility Expansion $10,000 20yrs. $ 500
Manufacturing Equipment 20,000 10yrs. 2,000
Packaging Equipment 15,000 10yrs. 1,500
Working Capital(1) 12,817 0
Total Investment $57,817 $4,000
(1) The increase in working capital is not expected to occur up front at the time of the initial
investment. It is assumed to take place throughout the year and should be considered as part of the
2009 cash flows.
Note: Working capital is defined as accounts receivable plus inventory less accounts payable and
accrued expenses. At the end of the project, working capital will be returned in an amount equal to
accounts receivable less accounts payable.
The team that developed the proposal was led by Robert Gates, HPL’s Executive Vice President of
Manufacturing. They found the investment attractive because the additional capacity would allow
HPL to expand its relationship with its largest customer (whose sales were growing in the U.S. and
abroad) and generate an acceptable payback. The expansion would also create the opportunity to
grow HPL’s other customer relationships. Moreover, it might change the competitive landscape.
Virtually all unit growth came from private label penetration gains that, although steady, were too4021 | Hansson Private Label, Inc.: Evaluating an Investment in Expansion
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modest to support significant expansions by multiple producers. Knowing this, HPL’s competitors
might be deterred from expanding their production capacity in HPL’s personal care subsegments—
especially since HPL’s announcement would be supported by a multiyear contract with a powerful
customer.
However, the team acknowledged that the project presented risks unlike any that HPL had
previously encountered. First, making this level of investment and incurring the associated debt
would significantly increase HPL’s annual fixed costs and its risk of financial distress should sales
fall, costs rise, or both. Second, the sales that would support the capacity growth would come, at least
initially, from what was already HPL’s largest customer. Although HPL had a long and positive
relationship with the customer, the demand could disappear at the end of the initial three-year
contract.
Final Steps Toward a Decision
The annual capital planning process took place during an all-day working session hosted by
Tucker Hansson each October. In the meeting, Hansson and his staff, including the managers of each
facility, reviewed the capital requests and the related scoring prepared by CFO Sheila Dowling. They
agreed on a prioritization of the projects, discussed the trade-offs of choosing various projects over
others, and inquired into the opportunities and consequences of pursuing listed projects at lower
levels of expenditure. The capital budget for the next year was typically finalized at Hansson’s first
staff meeting each December when any unanswered questions from the October session were
addressed and the team reviewed the final plan one last time, including consideration of the latest
forecast for EBITDA and the resulting capital budget for the following year.
For his part, Hansson usually relied heavily on Dowling’s scoring to compare projects, but her
typical approach to risk assessment was not helpful for this project. The size of the investment posed
additional risk beyond what HPL typically contemplated. As a result, Hansson’s questions about
payback and risk had a more “macro” focus than usual; he wondered how much value the project
would really generate, how much risk HPL should tolerate, how the company could mitigate the
risks, and what the backup plans should be if unforeseen risks materialized. Making the wrong
decision could have serious consequences stemming from increased capacity, fixed costs, and debt
service. Moreover, Hansson knew that the cost of debt was likely to be pricy in terms of both interest
expense and restrictive covenants, and that equity financing on favorable terms was extremely
unlikely.
Hansson also knew his team was unhappy that his uncertainty was delaying the process.
Furthermore, he realized that after several years without a big investment, the team was beginning to
wonder whether he was transitioning into “harvest mode” and, therefore, whether their days with
HPL were numbered. Hansson had to overcome his apprehensions and make a decision.
Pursuing this investment in capacity would close off all other investment opportunities for the
foreseeable future: The company’s financial position would be at the limit of Hansson’s comfort zone,
and HPL’s managerial bench would be tapped out. He found the singular focus invigorating; indeed,
the only investment opportunities HPL had evaluated in the past several years were incremental
additions of new product types, which now seemed meager and unambitious. At the same time,
Hansson was also grappling with the reality that most of his personal wealth was tied up in HPL, and
a further investment of this magnitude would represent a concentration of personal risk.
Hansson needed to launch a final review of the request before he could comfortably give the goahead. The most vexing question for Hansson was related to the appropriate discount rate. He knewHansson Private Label, Inc.: Evaluating an Investment in Expansion | 4021
HARVARD BUSINESS SCHOOL | BRIEFCASES 5
that discount rates were intended to reflect the degree of risk in the underlying cash flows, but he
also knew that the choice of discount rate could significantly affect a project’s viability. HPL’s
practice had always been to use an estimate of the company’s WACC as the discount rate for capital
budgeting projects. In Hansson’s mind, that made sense because all of HPL’s capital budgeting
projects were in its one line of business, manufacture of private label personal care products.
However, Hansson now wondered whether the proposed project should be evaluated using the
historical WACC. After all, the company was taking on more debt, and the project could very well
change the risk profile of the firm.
With all of this in mind, Hansson had asked Dowling to prepare a range of potential discount
rates (shown in Exhibit 7). To create her table, Dowling estimated HPL’s enterprise value at 7.0x last
fiscal year’s EBITDA, which reflected the multiple of valuation for several recent transactions in the
industry. Using the comparable company information shown in Exhibit 6, she considered her
valuation to be both conservative and reasonable.
The portion of the WACC analysis with which Dowling was most troubled related to estimates for
the cost of debt at various D/E levels. Her recent conversations with bankers led her to believe that
the 7.75% rate was reasonable for levels not exceeding 25% D/V, but that for larger amounts of
leverage the cost would be substantially greater. She just didn’t know by how much.
As Hansson watched the snow fall, he knew he was in for a long night. He normally left detailed
financial analyses to Dowling; however, this time he picked up the financial section of Gates’
proposal (shown in Exhibit 5) as well as Dowling’s cost of capital analysis, and began working on his
own NPV estimates. He also planned to generate sensitivity analyses to see how changes in key
project variables—especially capacity utilization, selling price per unit, and direct material cost per
unit—would make the investment case stronger or weaker. It would be a long night and a long day
tomorrow.4021 | Hansson Private Label, Inc.: Evaluating an Investment in Expansion
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Exhibit 1: HPL’s Historical Financial Statements
(Exhibit 1 cont’d next page)
Operating Results: 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Revenue $503.4 $543.7 $587.2 $636.1 $680.7
Less: Cost of Goods Sold 405.2 432.3 496.2 513.4 558.2
Gross Profit 98.2 111.4 91.0 122.7 122.5
Less: Selling, General & Administrative 37.8 44.6 45.8 51.5 49.0
EBITDA 60.4 66.8 45.2 71.2 73.5
Less: Depreciation 6.8 6.2 6.0 5.9 6.1
EBIT 53.6 60.6 39.2 65.3 67.4
Less: Interest Expense 5.5 5.8 5.9 5.3 3.3
EBT 48.1 54.8 33.3 60.0 64.1
Less: Taxes 19.2 22.0 13.3 24.0 25.6
Net Income $28.9 $32.8 $20.0 $36.0 $38.5
Margins
Revenue Growth NA 8.0% 8.0% 8.3% 7.0%
Gross Margin 19.5% 20.5% 15.5% 19.3% 18.0%
Selling, General & Administrative/Revenue 7.5% 8.2% 7.8% 8.1% 7.2%
EBITDA Margin 12.0% 12.3% 7.7% 11.2% 10.8%
EBIT Margin 10.6% 11.1% 6.7% 10.3% 9.9%
Net Income Margin 5.7% 6.0% 3.4% 5.7% 5.7%
Effective Tax Rate 39.9% 40.1% 39.9% 40.0% 39.9%
Assets: 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Cash & Cash Equivalents $4.3 $5.1 $4.8 $7.8 $5.0
Accounts Receivable 62.1 70.1 78.8 87.1 93.3
Inventory 57.7 58.0 61.2 61.9 67.3
Total Current Assets 124.1 133.2 144.8 156.8 165.6
Property, Plant & Equipment 201.4 202.9 203.1 202.3 204.4
Other Non-Current Assets 12.3 12.1 11.8 12.5 10.8
Total Assets $337.8 $348.2 $359.7 $371.6 $380.8
Liabilities & Owners’ Equity:
Accounts Payable & Accrued Liabilities $42.2 $45.0 $51.6 $53.4 $58.1
Long-Term Debt 91.6 82.8 73.8 65.8 54.8
Owners’ Equity 204.0 220.4 234.3 252.4 267.9
Total Liabilities & Owners’ Equity $337.8 $348.2 $359.7 $371.6 $380.8
Net Working Capital:
Accounts Receivable 62.1 70.1 78.8 87.1 93.3
Plus: Inventory 57.7 58.0 61.2 61.9 67.3
Less: Accounts Payable & Accrued Expenses 42.2 45.0 51.6 53.4 58.1
Net Working Capital 77.6 83.1 88.4 95.6 102.5Hansson Private Label, Inc.: Evaluating an Investment in Expansion | 4021
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Exhibit 1, cont’d
Cash From Operations: 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Net Income $28.9 $32.8 $20.0 $36.0 $38.5
Plus: Depreciation 6.8 6.2 6.0 5.9 6.1
Less: Increase in Accounts Receivable 3.1 8.0 8.7 8.3 6.2
Less: Increase in Inventory 0.5 0.3 3.2 0.7 5.4
Plus: Increase in Accounts Payable 0.3 2.8 6.6 1.8 4.7
Total Cash From Operations $32.4 $33.5 $20.7 $34.7 $37.7
Cash From Investing:
Capital Expenditures $7.3 $7.7 $6.2 $5.1 $8.2
Plus: Increases in Other Non-Current Assets 0.5 (0.2) (0.3) 0.7 (1.7)
Total Cash Used in Investing $7.8 $7.5 $5.9 $5.8 $6.5
Cash From Financing:
Repayment of Debt $8.0 $8.8 $9.0 $8.0 $11.0
Plus: Dividend Payments 14.4 16.4 6.1 17.9 23.0
Cash Used in Financing $22.4 $25.2 $15.1 $25.9 $34.0
Total Cash Generated $2.2 $0.8 ($0.3) $3.0 ($2.8)4021 | Hansson Private Label, Inc.: Evaluating an Investment in Expansion
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Exhibit 2: Private Label Share of U.S. Consumer Packaged-Goods Spending
Source: IRI
Exhibit 3: U.S. Sales in HPL’s Target Markets (in US$ millions)
Source: Datamonitor
Note: These figures include sales of both branded and private label products.
21.0% 21.2% 21.3%
15.7% 15.8% 16.1%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2005 2006 2007
Unit sha re Dolla r sha re
$7,100 $7,400 $7,700 $8,000 $8,300
$6,434 $6,471 $6,537 $6,616 $6,700
$4,328 $4,352 $4,374 $4,397 $4,417
$1,909 $1,990 $2,071 $2,151 $2,229
$0
$3,000
$6,000
$9,000
$12,000
$15,000
$18,000
$21,000
$24,000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Skin care Oral hy giene Perso nal hy giene Hand and bo dy careHansson Private Label, Inc.: Evaluating an Investment in Expansion | 4021
HARVARD BUSINESS SCHOOL | BRIEFCASES 9
Exhibit 4: HPL’s Sales into Its Retail Channels
Figures represent wholesale prices.
Sales (US$ millions) for Year Ending December 31
Channel 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Mass merchants 170 193 220 247 268
Grocery 91 92 92 92 94
Club 136 141 149 159 167
Drug 55 60 66 73 80
Dollar 22 24 26 29 32
All othersa 31 33 34 37 40
Total 505 543 587 637 681
a The category “All others” comprises convenience store sales and sales to miscellaneous distributors.
Exhibit 5: Excerpt of Financial Assumptions in Capital Request Form(1)
(1) Note that accounts receivable less accounts payable will be returned at the end of the project. Also note that all working capital
ratios are based on a 360 day year.
(2) Based on historical averages.
Revenue Projection: 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Total Capacity (000’s) 80,000 80,000 80,000 80,000 80,000 80,000 80,000 80,000 80,000 80,000
Capacity Utilization 60.0% 65.0% 70.0% 75.0% 80.0% 85.0% 85.0% 85.0% 85.0% 85.0%
Unit Volume 48,000 52,000 56,000 60,000 64,000 68,000 68,000 68,000 68,000 68,000
Selling Price Per Unit – Growing at 2.0% 1.77 1.81 1.84 1.88 1.92 1.95 1.99 2.03 2.07 2.12
Revenue 84,960 93,881 103,124 112,700 122,618 132,887 135,545 138,256 141,021 143,841
Production Costs:
Raw Materials Per Unit Growing at 1% 1.0% 0.94 0.95 0.96 0.97 0.98 0.99 1.00 1.01 1.02 1.03
Manufacturing Overhead Growing at 3.0% 3,600 3,708 3,819 3,934 4,052 4,173 4,299 4,428 4,560 4,697
Maintenance Expense Growing at 3.0% 2,250 2,318 2,387 2,459 2,532 2,608 2,687 2,767 2,850 2,936
Salaried Labor Cost:
Managers 4 4 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 8
Average Annual Fully Loaded Cost 3.5% 160.0 165.6 171.4 177.4 183.6 190.0 196.7 203.6 210.7 218.1
Total Salaried Labor Cost 640.0 662.4 1,028.4 1,064.4 1,468.8 1,520.2 1,573.4 1,628.5 1,685.5 1,744.5
Hourly Labor Cost:
Average Fully Loaded Hourly Cost 3.5% 20.00 20.70 21.42 22.17 22.95 23.75 24.59 25.45 26.34 27.26
Hours Per Year 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000
Cost Per Hourly Employee 40,000 41,400 42,849 44,349 45,901 47,507 49,170 50,891 52,672 54,516
Number of Hourly Workers 450 473 509 545 582 618 618 618 618 618
Total Hourly Labor Cost (000’s) 18,000.0 19,570.9 21,814.0 24,190.2 26,706.0 29,368.2 30,396.1 31,460.0 32,561.1 33,700.7
Total Labor Cost 18,640.0 20,233.3 22,842.4 25,254.6 28,174.8 30,888.5 31,969.6 33,088.5 34,246.6 35,445.2
Selling, General & Administrative/Revenue 7.8% 7.8% 7.8% 7.8% 7.8% 7.8% 7.8% 7.8% 7.8% 7.8%
Working Capital Assumptions:(2)
Days Sales Outstanding 47.6x 47.6x 47.6x 47.6x 47.6x 47.6x 47.6x 47.6x 47.6x 47.6x
Days Sales Inventory 37.6x 37.6x 37.6x 37.6x 37.6x 37.6x 37.6x 37.6x 37.6x 37.6x
Days Payable Outstanding 34.2x 34.2x 34.2x 34.2x 34.2x 34.2x 34.2x 34.2x 34.2x 34.2×4021 | Hansson Private Label, Inc.: Evaluating an Investment in Expansion
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Exhibit 6: Comparable Company Analysis
Market Net Enterprise Equity Net Book
Company: Value Debt Value Beta Revenue EBITDA EBIT Income Value
Cathleen Sinclair 298.9 1,329.6 1,628.5 2.22 1,346.8 255.3 163.4 21.5 (1,112.8)
General Health & Beauty 319.3 63.1 382.4 1.95 446.1 61.9 51.9 23.8 204.2
Women’s Care Company 498.6 55.3 553.9 1.14 397.3 52.7 49.3 77.0 43.7
Skin Care Enterprises 1,204.2 371.9 1,576.1 1.35 1,247.6 155.8 125.4 65.3 316.2
Company: EBITDA EBIT Earnings Revenue EBITDA EBIT P/E P/B
Cathleen Sinclair 19.0% 12.1% 1.6% 1.2x 6.4x 10.0x 13.9x NM
General Health & Beauty 13.9% 11.6% 5.3% 0.9x 6.2x 7.4x 13.4x 1.6x
Women’s Care Company 13.3% 12.4% 19.4% 1.4x 10.5x 11.2x 6.5x 11.4x
Skin Care Enterprises 12.5% 10.1% 5.2% 1.3x 10.1x 12.6x 18.4x 3.8x
Average 14.6% 11.6% 7.9% 1.2x 8.3x 10.3x 13.1x 5.6xHansson Private Label, Inc.: Evaluating an Investment in Expansion | 4021
HARVARD BUSINESS SCHOOL | BRIEFCASES 11
Exhibit 7: Cost of Capital Analysis
Debt/ Debt/ Equity Debt Asset
Company: Value Equity Beta Beta Beta
Cathleen Sinclair 81.6% 444.9% 2.22 0.25 0.79
General Health & Beauty 16.5% 19.8% 1.95 0.00 1.74
Women’s Care Company 10.0% 11.1% 1.14 0.00 1.07
Skin Care Enterprises 23.6% 30.9% 1.35 0.00 1.14
Average 32.9% 49.1% 1.67 0.06 1.18
Debt/ Debt/ Asset Equity Cost of Cost of
Value Equity Beta Beta Equity Debt WACC
0.0% 0.0% 1.18 1.18 9.67% 7.75% 9.67%
5.0% 5.3% 1.18 1.22 9.86% 7.75% 9.60%
10.0% 11.1% 1.18 1.26 10.07% 7.75% 9.53%
15.0% 17.6% 1.18 1.31 10.30% 7.75% 9.45%
20.0% 25.0% 1.18 1.36 10.56% 7.75% 9.38%
25.0% 33.3% 1.18 1.42 10.86% 7.75% 9.31%
Assumptions:
10-Year Treasury 3.75%
Market Risk Premium 5.00%
Tax Rate 40.0%
Est. Hansson EBITDA Multiple 7.0x
Est. Hansson Enterprise Value 514.5
Existing Net Debt 49.8
Plus: New Expansion Debt 57.8
Total Estimated Debt 107.6
Existing D/V 9.7%
Estimated New D/V 20.9%
Assumed Debt Beta 0.00
Estimated Cost of Debt 7.75%
